Imagine buying a $1,000 Lakers Finals ticket for $490. Not a counterfeit. Not a nosebleed seat. The exact same ticket, at half the price. The catch? The Lakers have to actually make the Finals. If they do not, you lose your $490. That is a conditional ticket.
At ParlayTix, we are building a system that bridges two worlds that have never really talked to each other: live event tickets and prediction markets. The result is a financial instrument that makes expensive tickets accessible to fans who are willing to put skin in the game.
The Core Idea
A conditional ticket is a derivative. You are not buying the ticket outright. You are buying the right to receive the ticket if a specific condition is met. That condition is tied to a real prediction market on Polymarket, where thousands of traders are constantly pricing the probability of real-world events.
This means the price you pay is directly linked to the probability of the condition happening. Lower probability events mean bigger discounts. Higher probability means smaller discounts but more likely payoff.
The Pricing Formula
Every conditional ticket price is computed from three inputs:
- Face value - what the ticket normally costs on the open market
- Probability - the current Polymarket probability of the condition (e.g., 35% chance Lakers make Finals)
- Margin - a platform risk premium (currently 40%) that covers execution risk and operational costs
The formula is simple: conditional_price = face_value x probability x (1 + margin)
For our Lakers example: $1,000 x 0.35 x 1.40 = $490. That is a 51% discount off face value. The discount gets even larger for less likely outcomes. A team with a 15% chance to win the championship? That $1,000 ticket drops to $210.
What Happens After You Buy
Once you pay for a conditional ticket, one of two things happens:
- Condition is met - The system automatically purchases the real ticket for you through our browser automation infrastructure. You receive the ticket at full face value, having paid only the conditional price.
- Condition is not met - Your payment is forfeited. The event either did not happen or the team did not qualify. This is the risk you accepted in exchange for the discount.
The monitoring is fully automated. Our TriggerMonitorService checks Polymarket conditions every 60 seconds. When the condition resolves, execution is immediate.
Who Is This For
Conditional tickets are not for everyone. They are designed for fans who already believe a certain outcome is going to happen and want to put their conviction to work. If you are already telling your friends the Lakers are going to the Finals, why not lock in your ticket at half price while you are at it?
The risk-reward is clear: bigger conviction, bigger discount, bigger potential payoff. It is prediction markets meets live entertainment, and we think it is the future of how fans access premium events.