Traditional ticket pricing is based on seat location, demand, and reseller markups. Conditional ticket pricing throws all of that out and replaces it with a single, transparent input: probability. In this post, we break down exactly how our pricing engine works and why it produces fair prices for both sides of the trade.
Where the Probability Comes From
We do not make up probabilities. Every conditional ticket price is anchored to a live prediction market on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market platform. When thousands of traders are betting real money on whether the Lakers will make the Finals, the market-clearing price reflects genuine collective intelligence about that outcome.
This is fundamentally different from a sportsbook's odds. Polymarket probabilities are not set by a bookmaker. They emerge from open market trading where anyone can buy or sell shares. If the market says 35%, that number has been stress-tested by traders with real capital on the line.
The Three-Input Formula
Every conditional ticket price is derived from exactly three numbers:
Conditional Price = Face Value x Effective Probability x (1 + Margin)
Let us walk through each component:
Face Value is the current market price for the ticket on platforms like StubHub, SeatGeek, or the venue's own box office. We pull this data in real-time through our crawler infrastructure. A floor seat to the NBA Finals might have a face value of $2,500.
Effective Probability is the current Polymarket probability for the linked condition. If Polymarket says there is a 35% chance the Lakers make the Finals, the effective probability is 0.35. This number updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares on Polymarket.
Margin is the platform risk premium, currently set at 40% (1.40 multiplier). This covers execution risk, the cost of browser automation infrastructure that actually purchases your tickets, payment processing, and operational overhead. We are transparent about this number because we believe pricing should be auditable.
Running the Numbers
Here is how the math plays out across different probability ranges:
A $500 ticket at 15% probability: $500 x 0.15 x 1.40 = $105 (79% discount)
A $500 ticket at 35% probability: $500 x 0.35 x 1.40 = $245 (51% discount)
A $500 ticket at 60% probability: $500 x 0.60 x 1.40 = $420 (16% discount)
A $500 ticket at 80% probability: $500 x 0.80 x 1.40 = $560 (no discount, price exceeds face value)
Notice what happens at high probabilities. When the condition is very likely (above roughly 71%), the conditional price actually exceeds face value because of the margin. At that point, buying the ticket outright is cheaper. Our system detects this and will not offer conditional pricing when it does not benefit the buyer. The sweet spot is in the 15-50% probability range, where discounts are dramatic.
Real-Time Price Updates
Because Polymarket probabilities change continuously, conditional ticket prices are inherently dynamic. A quote you receive is valid for a limited window. If the probability shifts significantly before you pay, the system generates a fresh quote with the updated price.
This is actually a feature, not a limitation. It means you are always getting a price that reflects the current state of collective knowledge. No stale odds. No information asymmetry. Just transparent, market-driven pricing.
The Service Fee
On top of the conditional price, there is a service fee calculated as the greater of 5% of the conditional price or $2.99. For a $245 conditional ticket, that is a $12.25 service fee, bringing the total to $257.25 for what would otherwise be a $500 ticket. Still a 48.5% net savings.
We think this is a more honest pricing model than the traditional ticket industry, where fees are hidden, dynamic pricing is opaque, and the house always wins. With conditional tickets, you know exactly what you are paying, why you are paying it, and what your upside is.